IAEA Grossi’s Statement on Iran’s Potential Resumption of Enriched Uranium Production, Analysis of Conflicting Claims
Grossi’s assessment draws from the IAEA’s monitoring efforts, including its verification of Iran’s stockpile of over 400 kg (approximately 900 pounds) of 60% enriched uranium on June 22, 2025.
MIDDLE EAST — On June 29, 2025, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi claimed that Iran could resume producing enriched uranium "in a matter of months" despite recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on its nuclear facilities. This assertion contrasts with U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that the strikes "completely and totally obliterated" Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Key Points
IAEA Grossi’s Claim: Rafael Grossi, on June 29, 2025, indicated that Iran could resume enriched uranium production "in a matter of months," citing severe but not total damage to its nuclear facilities.
President Trump’s Claim: President Donald Trump, on June 21 and 22, 2025, asserted that U.S. strikes had "completely and totally obliterated" Iran’s nuclear facilities, referencing satellite imagery.
Intelligence Assessment: A preliminary low-confidence U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report suggested that the strikes set Iran’s nuclear program back by only a few months, with core components intact.
Iranian Statements: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged significant damage, while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei downplayed the impact, creating internal discrepancies.
Expert Analysis: Nonproliferation expert Jeffrey Lewis noted that key parts of Iran’s nuclear program remain unscathed, supporting the potential for rapid recovery.
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